Indonesias HPM New Deal reshapes the global nickel price system, and stainless steel pipes reappear to rise twice a day.-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

First, the raw material report:
1. Nickel: On April 14th, London nickel closed at $18,206, up by $508 or 2.87%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2606 is 141,680 yuan, up 3,310 yuan or 2.39%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochromium FeCr55C1000(50 basis) 8700 yuan /50 basis tons. The reference price of domestic ferromolybdenum FeMo60 is 288,000 yuan/ton.
2. The latest price of stainless steel 2606 is 14,830 yuan, up by 270 yuan, or 1.85%; The position was 121,435 lots and the turnover was 102,587 lots.
3. Price quotation of waste stainless steel in Dai Nan (RMB/ton):
1. 201 new materials 5150-5550, 304 new materials 9650-9850, 304 industry 9600-9900, 304 shavings 8750-9050.
2, 316 furnace 18000-18500, 316 shavings 16400-16700.
3, 201 scrap 5500-5700, 201 old tube 4800-5000, 202 big furnace 5700-6000.
4, 430 No film 4500-4700, 431 Return charge 3500-3700
Second, stainless steel hot rolled coil
1. Castle Peak: 14,000 yuan/ton for five-foot burr of 304 material, 27,200 yuan/ton for 316L five-foot burr and 28,300 yuan/ton for 2205 five-foot burr.
2. TISCO: 304 material with 1800 burrs is 14800 yuan/ton.
III. Reference price of stainless steel tubes and rods
1. 【 Castle Peak Round Steel 65-130 】
S30400 material is 14,100 yuan/ton, 316L material is 26,500 yuan (sealed), 2205 material is 28,000 yuan/ton, 310S material is 32,700 yuan/ton, TP321 material is 16,900 yuan/ton, and 321 material is 15,700 yuan/ton.
3. 【 Yongxing Special Steel Bar 65-130 】
4, 304 material 16800 yuan/ton, 316L material Ni10 30300 yuan/ton, Ni12 3300 yuan/ton, TP321 material 19300 yuan/ton, 2205 material 32300 yuan/ton.
3. 【 Zhejiang Friendship Bar 65-130 】
347H material is 19,500 yuan/ton, 316L material is 26,800 yuan/ton, 316LMo2.5 material is 30,100 yuan/ton, 316L nickel 12 material is 30,100 yuan/ton, 2205 material is 28,300 yuan/ton, 310S material is 32,200 yuan/ton, and 2507 material is 34,400 yuan.
4. 【 Anhui Fukai Bar 】
1) Round steel of 65-130: 30,400 yuan/ton for German standard 316, 36,900 yuan/ton for 904L, 34,000 yuan/ton for 310S, 28,000 yuan/ton for 2205(F60) and S32750(F53).
2) Round steel of 65-130: 168,000 yuan/ton for N07718, 95,500 yuan/ton for N06625, 66,500 yuan/ton for N08810, 84,700 yuan/ton for N08828 and 87,000 yuan/ton for N08020.
4. 【 Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price 】
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-24 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-38.2 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-28.4 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-19.5 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-36 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-23.5 yuan /kg.
V. Market analysis
1. Nickel mine:
On April 10th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially signed Ministerial Order No.144, announcing that the calculation rules of mineral benchmark price (HPM) will be fundamentally revised from April 15th, 2026. This is not only a simple parameter adjustment, but also a pricing system reform with "resource value revaluation" as the core.
The core of this adjustment lies in the great change of nickel ore pricing formula. The new regulations break the previous single pricing model based on nickel content and adopt a multi-element comprehensive pricing system of "nickel+iron+cobalt+chromium". Among them, the correction factor (CF) of 1.6% grade nickel ore jumped from 17% to 30%, with an increase of 76%, and the associated metals such as cobalt, iron and chromium were fully included in the valuation range. According to estimates, this adjustment will directly lead to an increase of over 100% in the HPM price of nickel ore, and even higher in some minerals.
From the perspective of cost transmission, as the source of industrial chain, the soaring price of nickel ore will directly push up the production cost of intermediate products such as ferronickel, high nickel matte and MHP. According to estimates, the cost of pyrometallurgy is expected to increase by about 2600 USD/ton, and the cost of hydrometallurgy will increase by about 3400 USD/ton. This cost increment will be transmitted to downstream stainless steel, new energy batteries and other links along the industrial chain, reshaping the cost curve of global nickel products.

From the perspective of supply pattern, Indonesia is the core of global nickel supply (the output accounts for over 60%), and its policy adjustment has a global impact. Previously, Indonesia has tightened its supply by reducing the quota for nickel mining (RKAB), and this HPM reform is a key link in the combination of "controlling quantity and raising price". At the same time, geopolitical risks are also aggravating the uncertainty of the supply side. The U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz blocked the supply chain of sulfur, which is an important raw material for hydrometallurgy of MHP, which further amplified the expectation of nickel price increase.
2. Ferromolybdenum
From the supply side, the global molybdenum market is facing the double constraints of "resource scarcity" and "capacity bottleneck", which constitutes a solid "cost bottom" where prices are difficult to fall deeply.
Domestically, mines in the main producing areas of molybdenum concentrate are reluctant to sell, the spot circulation continues to shrink, and the quotation of upstream raw materials is firm. At the same time, the tightening of domestic mining quotas and the continuous clearing of small and medium-sized mines have led to a long-term tight circulation of molybdenum concentrate.
Overseas supply is also full of uncertainty, and mines in major producing areas such as Chile and Peru have stopped production and reduced production frequently, further aggravating the global supply shortage. According to industry analysis, the annual gap between supply and demand in the global molybdenum market is obvious in 2026, while the domestic molybdenum concentrate production is likely to be flat or slightly increased, and explosive growth is difficult. The rigid constraint of the supply side is the core support of the current price.
Looking forward to the market outlook, before the tight balance between supply and demand is fundamentally reversed, the characteristics of ferromolybdenum price "easy to rise and difficult to fall" are still remarkable, and it is expected to maintain a high fluctuation pattern in the core range in the short term. Whether the future price can break through the upward trend will closely depend on the landing intensity of downstream high-end manufacturing orders and the further evolution of global macro-sentiment.
3. Stainless steel
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in March 2026, China exported 9.135 million tons of steel, down 12.6% year-on-year; From January to March, China exported 24.717 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%. Judging from the data, the downward trend of exports is still continuing. From January to February, Chinas steel exports totaled 15.59 million tons, down 8% year-on-year. In March, China exported 9.135 million tons, down 12.6% year-on-year, indicating that the decline is still continuing.
On the one hand, due to policy factors, the new policy of steel export license implemented since January 1, 2026 has led to the extension of the delivery period of enterprises, and some low-profit orders have been voluntarily abandoned because of the high compliance cost. On the other hand, due to the weakening of international demand and the increase of anti-dumping, there are also disturbances in the Middle East.
On the demand side, the start of terminal projects is still dull, the willingness to purchase downstream is not strong, and the upward price is lack of effective support.
On the whole, Indonesias HPM New Deal is a key event to reshape the global nickel pricing system. In the short term, the strong support of the cost side will make nickel prices and stainless steel easy to rise and difficult to fall, and LME nickel prices and domestic nickel-related product prices are expected to continue the strong trend. In the medium term, with the transmission of costs to the downstream, industries such as stainless steel and new energy batteries will face the pressure of cost restructuring, and the global nickel and stainless steel market will gradually form a new balance between supply and demand under the dual effects of rising costs and tightening supply.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,